INDOPOSCO.ID – Capital market observer and Founder of Republik Investor, Hendra Wardana, projects that the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) will continue to move fluctuatively in Monday’s trading, with sentiment mainly driven by domestic factors.
Market sentiment is expected to stem from investors closely monitoring the direction of policy implementation announced by the authorities, particularly the eight action plans aimed at accelerating reforms in Indonesia’s capital market.
“In the very short term, the JCI is likely to move in a volatile yet consolidative manner, as investors continue to assess the policy direction of market authorities and global investor responses to various evolving domestic and external issues,” Hendra said when contacted in Jakarta on Monday (February 2, 2026).
Over the coming week, he projects the JCI to trade with high volatility within a relatively wide range, between 8,171 and 8,480.
He noted that the direction of the JCI over the next week and throughout February 2026 will remain heavily influenced by the process of rebuilding market confidence amid ongoing policy dynamics and volatility that has yet to fully subside.
“After experiencing a sharp correction, Indonesia’s stock market has now entered a crucial phase, where investor psychology plays a role just as important as economic fundamentals,” Hendra said.
He added that pressure may still emerge due to investor caution following recent market turbulence. At the same time, however, the opportunity for a technical rebound remains open, particularly for large-cap stocks that have undergone deep corrections.
As long as no new extreme negative sentiment emerges, he said market participants are likely to attempt to establish a new equilibrium level.
“This condition reflects a market that has not fully recovered, but is also no longer in a panic-selling phase,” he said.
Various developments over the weekend—from issues surrounding capital market authorities and dynamics at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) to movements in global gold prices reflecting rising investor demand for safe-haven assets—have further reinforced short-term volatility, according to Hendra.
“Global sentiment uncertainty continues to overshadow market movements,” he added.
Nevertheless, he assessed that the risk of another trading halt remains relatively limited, as long as financial system stability is maintained and policy communication from authorities remains clear, consistent, and well-coordinated.
“If the authorities’ measures are perceived as efforts to improve governance and strengthen market credibility, investor responses could improve, although any gains are likely to be selective and gradual,” Hendra said.
Under such market conditions, he emphasized that investor strategy becomes critical, with defensive and selective approaches being key, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals, high liquidity, and strategic roles in index formation.
He recommended that short-term investors remain disciplined in managing risk and avoid forcing positions amid persistent high volatility.
Meanwhile, medium- and long-term investors may begin to gradually accumulate quality stocks whose valuations have become more reasonable.
“This strategy is important to ensure investors are not trapped by short-term turbulence, while still maintaining exposure when the market begins to show signs of stabilization,” Hendra said.
Based on IDX closing data last Friday (January 30), the JCI ended the session up 97.41 points, or 1.18 percent, at 8,329.61. Meanwhile, the LQ45 index of 45 blue-chip stocks rose 20.52 points, or 2.52 percent, to 833.53, as quoted by Antara.
Stock trading frequency reached 3,399,348 transactions, with a total of 57.76 billion shares traded, valued at Rp41.33 trillion. A total of 551 stocks advanced, 194 declined, and 65 remained unchanged. (aro)
