INDOPOSCO.ID – The rupiah has yet to fully emerge from pressure territory. Although the Indonesian currency recorded gains in midweek trading, the rupiah is still expected to face heightened volatility amid escalating global geopolitical tensions and growing market concerns over energy-driven inflation.
In Wednesday’s trading session (May 13, 2026), the rupiah appreciated by 54 points, or 0.31 percent, to Rp17,474 against the US dollar. However, the gain was not enough to reverse broader market sentiment, particularly as the US Dollar Index continued its climb to 98.49.
Pressure on the rupiah resurfaced toward the end of the week. By Friday’s close (May 15, 2026), the domestic currency had weakened to Rp17,597 per US dollar.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi projected that the rupiah would continue to move within a wide range next week, forecasting the exchange rate to fluctuate between Rp17,420 and Rp17,650 per US dollar.
For Monday’s trading session (May 18, 2026), the rupiah is expected to trade within the Rp17,470–Rp17,530 range against the greenback, with a tendency to close weaker.
According to Ibrahim, global market participants remain overshadowed by uncertainty following remarks by US President Donald Trump regarding negotiations with Iran, which he described as being in a critical state. The statement has renewed concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil distribution.
“The conflict with Iran has started to affect the US economy because higher oil prices are driving fuel costs upward, and economists expect to see second-round effects in the coming months,” Ibrahim said in a press release on Sunday (May 13, 2026).
Beyond Middle East tensions, investor attention is also focused on the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14–15, 2026.
The meeting is viewed as significant because it could shape the future direction of trade relations between the world’s two largest economies, while also influencing sentiment toward emerging market assets, including Indonesia.
Amid these external pressures, Bank Indonesia reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining domestic financial market stability. Despite trading activity being shortened by the long holiday period, the central bank reportedly remained active in conducting interventions in the offshore market.
“Bank Indonesia will also enter the domestic market aggressively starting from the opening of trading on May 18, 2026. Interventions will be carried out through the spot foreign exchange market, Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) instruments, as well as purchases of government bonds (SBN) in the secondary market,” he added.
Market observers believe Bank Indonesia’s aggressive measures will provide crucial support for the rupiah amid persistent global pressures, ranging from surging oil prices and geopolitical conflicts to shifts in US economic policy.(her)
