INDOPOSCO.ID – The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has urged the public to remain vigilant as rain is forecast to affect the majority of regions across Indonesia on Monday (Jan. 19, 2026).
BMKG weather forecaster Selly Brilian, speaking during an online briefing monitored in Jakarta on Monday, said light rain is expected in Medan, Pekanbaru, Jambi, Bengkulu, Bandar Lampung, Serang, Jakarta, Bandung, Tanjung Selor, Samarinda, Denpasar, Makassar, Kendari, Maluku, Gorontalo, Manado, Ternate, Sorong, Ambon, Manokwari, Nabire, Jayapura, Jayawijaya, and Merauke.
Moderate rain is forecast for Semarang and Surabaya. Meanwhile, heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected in Yogyakarta and Kupang. Thick cloud cover to foggy conditions are predicted in Banda Aceh, Padang, Tanjung Pinang, Pontianak, Palangka Raya, Banjarmasin, Palembang, Mataram, and Palu.
According to BMKG, a combination of atmospheric dynamics is among the main factors influencing current weather conditions. Meteorological monitoring has identified three tropical cyclones that are directly or indirectly affecting rainfall potential across Indonesia.
Tropical Cyclone Nokaen developed from Tropical Cyclone Seed 91W on Jan. 15, 2026. The system is currently located at around 10.3 degrees north latitude and 128.8 degrees east longitude, east of the Philippines and north of North Sulawesi, with maximum sustained winds of up to 40 knots (approximately 56 kilometers per hour) and a minimum pressure of 1,000 hPa. Over the next 48–72 hours, the system is expected to persist at Category 1 intensity.
Tropical Cyclone Seed 96S has been observed at around 15.2 degrees south latitude and 113.0 degrees east longitude in the Indian Ocean south of East Java, with maximum wind speeds of 15 knots (about 37 kilometers per hour) and a minimum pressure of 1,002 hPa.
Another system, Tropical Cyclone Seed 97S, has also been detected in waters north of Northern Australia, with wind speeds of 20 knots and a low probability of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48–72 hours.
The combined influence of these weather systems is expected to increase the likelihood of moderate to heavy rainfall, accompanied by lightning, strong winds, and high sea waves exceeding two meters.
BMKG warned that such conditions could trigger extreme weather-related hydrometeorological disasters, including flooding, flash floods, tornado-like winds, and landslides, as Indonesia approaches the peak of the rainy season through late February. (aro)
