INDOPOSCO.ID – Political analyst Asep Kamaludin of UPN Veteran Jakarta has responded to survey findings released by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), which indicate a decline in President Prabowo Subianto’s electability. He said the findings should be examined critically, proportionately, and comprehensively.
“Saiful Mujani and SMRC have a track record of being closely associated with certain political narratives that have often run counter to Prabowo Subianto’s political camp during the last several election cycles,” Asep said in response to the survey results in Jakarta on Monday (October 19, 2026).
He added that the survey’s analytical framework appeared to be tendentious, noting that the background and analytical tendencies of the figure leading the polling institution could be relevant factors to consider.
“This risks creating a particular perception rather than portraying reality in a neutral manner,” he said.
However, he stressed that the validity of survey findings must still be assessed based on verifiable methodological evidence, rather than mere assumptions about political affiliations.
Asep also emphasized the importance of examining methodological aspects when interpreting survey results, including question design, simulated candidate choices, and how the findings are presented to the public.
“Assessing the electability of an incumbent president early or midway through their term solely through simulated presidential election scenarios has several fundamental limitations,” he said.
Furthermore, he stressed that surveys should not be treated merely as instruments for measuring popularity, but also as a basis for the government to evaluate its performance and improve communication with the public.
According to him, if survey results indicate a downward trend in public support, the government needs to identify the underlying issues, including program effectiveness, gaps between promises and implementation, and the way information is communicated to the public.
“Surveys should be viewed as an early warning system to improve the government’s public communication, rather than as an indicator of leadership failure. A decline in public opinion poll numbers early in a term is a common phenomenon known as ‘honeymoon period decay,’” Asep added. (dan)
