INDOPOSCO.ID – Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) has urged the public to remain vigilant over a potential increase in rainfall across parts of the country from Feb. 15 to 21, 2026, as the Asian Monsoon strengthens.
Acting Deputy for Meteorology at BMKG, Andri Ramdhani, said in an official statement in Jakarta on Sunday (Feb. 15, 2026) that analysis indicates dominant westerly winds driven by the intensifying Asian Monsoon are accelerating convective cloud formation over western and southern Indonesia.
The conditions are being reinforced by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), currently active over the Indian Ocean phase, along with atmospheric Kelvin and Rossby waves that are triggering wind convergence, particularly along the southern coasts of Java to Nusa Tenggara.
According to him, the combination of these atmospheric dynamics is increasing the likelihood of moderate to very heavy rainfall, potentially accompanied by lightning and strong winds, in several regions during the period.
BMKG forecasts heavy rainfall on Feb. 15-16 in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Bengkulu, Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, North Sulawesi, Highland Papua, and Papua.
From Feb. 17-18, similar conditions are expected to persist in Aceh, West Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Kalimantan, and North Sulawesi.
On Feb. 19, regions advised to stay alert for heavy rainfall include the Bangka Belitung Islands, West Sumatra, East Java, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, and Highland Papua. Meanwhile, from Feb. 20–21, the potential for heavy rain is forecast to continue in West Sumatra, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara.
Acting Director of Public Meteorology at BMKG, Ida Pramuwardani, called on regional governments and related agencies to strengthen preparedness and mitigation measures in accordance with local risk levels to anticipate potential hydrometeorological disasters.
BMKG also reminded residents, particularly those in flood- and landslide-prone areas, to remain cautious, avoid activities along riverbanks and steep slopes, and check the latest weather updates before undertaking land, sea, or air travel. (aro)
